Dr John Sullivan Talent Management Thought Leadership

You’re sure to land top talent if you recruit when the supply is high and the competition is low! Fortunately, we are now experiencing this high supply-to-low-competition ratio. It will remain that way during the rest of this year (2025). So, even if you have limited recruiting resources, realize that it’s a mistake to miss this year’s rare opportunity to cherry-pick from a mountain of available talent.

This approach uses a variation of the “right time”* recruiting strategy, which focuses on holiday hiring. So this article focuses on only two things. First, the reasons why the supply of exceptional and experienced talent is now so high. And second, why the number of companies that are competing for that talent surplus will remain low throughout late November and into December. 

* You can learn more about the broader “Right Time” recruiting strategy here.

Part I – There’s An Abundance Of Exceptional Talent This Holiday Season For These Reasons

This year’s end-of-year time, a month and a half, offers a unique opportunity to cherry-pick from a large group of experienced and exceptional talent. Below you will find the six fundamental reasons for this recent jump in the talent supply.

• Recent massive corporate layoffs mean that exceptional talent is widely available – so far this year, the job cuts have been the highest in 5 years. And this October, the job cuts were the highest during any October in more than 20 years. This current talent bulge is especially desirable to hiring managers because entire teams and functions have been eliminated at industry-leading companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Starbucks. And because entire teams and functions have been let go, those released include managers and the most experienced staff. Also, because the laid off came from these top companies, the released are guaranteed to be highly skilled. Of course, the fear of still more upcoming layoffs will also force many who are still working at top companies to consider a new job search. 

• Return to the office mandates are forcing exceptional remote workers to look – because they can be trusted, many of the best workers are allowed to work remotely. So, as return-to-office mandates become even harsher, many of these experienced and exceptional remote employees are being forced to seek remote jobs at other companies. 

• The dominance of AI has made other functional leaders consider leaving – it has now become obvious to most functional leaders that AI will get most of the corporate funding and attention in the near future. This means other established functions will be given a lower priority. And that will push the leaders from most of the previously top-priority functions to seek new opportunities at companies that still place the highest value on their discipline.

• Because the best employees plan ahead, December is when they consider leaving – because top employees are always planning ahead. Many use the year-end month of December as the right time to rethink what they are presently doing and what they would like to be doing next year. Last year had exceptionally high turmoil, trauma, and uncertainty. This December, you can expect talent who plan ahead to be especially open to future opportunities at companies with more stability and job security. That makes this holiday period the ideal time to proactively reach out to this exceptional employed talent so they include “your opportunity” among their plan’s options.

• Continuing inflation is causing many to look for better-paying jobs – due to the continued increase in the price of groceries, electricity, and rent, coupled with wages not keeping up with the rise in prices, all levels of talent are now seeking better-paying external jobs.

• The current shutdown means that more government workers are looking – the shutdown has forced many government workers to go without pay. That hardship, coupled with the last several months of governmental layoffs and employee abuse, has caused most top government employees and contractors to at least consider an active job search.

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Part II – You’ll Face Little Recruiting Competition For These Reasons

In addition to finding a surplus of talent, this year’s holiday period also offers a unique opportunity to recruit when you will face very little recruiting competition. So in this section, you will find the seven primary reasons why most of your talent competitors won’t be highly active during this holiday period. 

• Job postings have already decreased, demonstrating today’s lower competition – because current job postings have slumped to a four-year low. And with fewer new posts to view, your job postings will more easily be seen by job seekers than at other busy times (like January and September) when job sites are flooded with postings to scan. Finally, the ever-increasing US unemployment rate also means that there continues to be an increase in unemployed people looking for a job.

• Hiring freezes will eliminate a great deal of your recruiting competition – after large-scale layoffs, most corporations follow up by instituting hiring freezes for several months. And these freezes will mean that you will literally face “no competition” from some of your largest recruiting competitors during this time period.

• The typical year-end “recruiting pause” will limit your competition – many hiring managers, recruiters, and employees take a great deal of time off between Thanksgiving and the end of the year. And that work pause makes it quite difficult to schedule candidate interviews. That pause also means that you will gain a competitive advantage over your talent competitors if you can convince your own managers and team members to be available for interviews during this time period.

• Your competitors will have fewer approved requisitions because of exhausted budgets – there will be fewer active job openings at your competitors because, at the end of the year, it is common for recruiting functions to have exhausted their headcount allotment and/or their recruiting budget.

• Your competitors will field fewer recruiters, so it will be easier for you to win – many corporations with large recruiting staffs have purposely been cutting back on them during the last months (Amazon and Meta are good examples). With the loss of so many of their experienced recruiters, your recruiters will win more head-to-head recruiting battles with your talent competitors.

• Year-end facility closings will eliminate some recruiting competition entirely – because many companies (and especially high-tech ones) completely shut down between Christmas and New Year. You will face zero competition from them if you recruit during their shutdown week.

• A broad spectrum of talent will also be available – it’s important for recruiters and hiring managers to note. June 2025 marked the first time ever that the number of unemployed in the US has exceeded the number of open jobs (since 2021). And that means that in addition to having a large number of exceptional candidates available. Your job posts will also attract an abundance of talent from many job levels and with a variety of skills.

Holiday Hiring Can Also Be Faster And Cheaper

As stated previously, obviously, you will have an opportunity to improve your quality of hire during this time period. In addition, you should realize that holiday hiring can be notably faster. That faster time to fill is possible because your hiring managers will have a much lower workload and many fewer meetings during the holidays. That, coupled with the fact that it will be easier for employed candidates to get time off to participate in your interviews. And most want to land a job before the end of the year, which will make it easier to speed up your hiring process.

Finally, you should note that holiday recruiting can also be cheaper. Because when you aren’t competing against the normally high volume of job postings. Your job posting and advertising costs will be lower because you will be able to successfully get your message across to your prospects with a smaller number and shorter-running job postings. 

Note: You can find implementing tips for this holiday recruiting strategy here. 

Final Thoughts

I view corporate recruiting as a fierce competition between unequal recruiting functions. And that means that if your company isn’t among the most powerful recruiting brands. In order to be successful, you need three things. A powerful recruiting team, data-driven recruiting tools, and to recruit at the right time*. The right-time recruiting, in this case, is the strategy to use when the supply of top talent is high and the recruiting competition is low. Fortunately, during the holiday months of 2025, this high/low ratio will be one of the most favorable in recent memory. So in my view, smart individual recruiters and recruiting leaders need to find the time to develop their own holiday recruiting plan. One that kicks off before Black Friday.

Thanks for finding the time to read and share this information

Notes for the reader

This is the latest article from Dr. Sullivan, who was called “the Michael Jordan of Hiring” by Fast Company.

You can subscribe to Dr. Sullivan’s Aggressive Talent Management newsletter that focuses on recruiting tools, current recruiting opportunities and trends. Here or by following him on LinkedIn.