The Prediction Market – And Its Surprise Impacts On HR (Consider this a warning)

You read it here… the impacts from the prediction market will soon blindside HR. Yet if you look at the forecasted HR trends for 2026, not a single one even mentions The Prediction Market (or TPM). Nor the broad impact that this market will have on employees, managers, and executives.

In fact, I estimate that over 90% of HR professionals don’t even know what the prediction market is. Despite the fact that these markets grew an amazing fourfold during 2025, employees addicted to betting on them may become as much as 10% less productive.

Examples of business outcomes that your employees can put money on in the prediction market include if your CEO will resign, when your new product will launch, if your company announces a merger, and if any of your major facilities will close.

What Is The Prediction Market? (TPM)

If you’re not familiar with it, the prediction market is made up of several independent companies that allow anonymous participants/investors/bettors to place money on the outcomes of real events (ranging from sports, world events, elections, to business outcomes).

The most popular companies in the prediction market are currently Polymarket and Kalshi. The TPM is rapidly becoming more popular because it has often proven to be a superior forecasting/prediction tool when its predictions are compared side-by-side to a poll of users.

Some consider these TPMs to be an alternative investment market. At the same time, others classify it as a betting platform that simply covers a wider range of events and outcomes. TPM differs from gambling because when you place a TPM bet, “you are allowed to bet on your own team.” Unlike most gambling platforms that take a percentage of the amount, TPM companies make their money primarily by collecting transaction fees.

Why HR And Executives Need to Pay Attention To The Prediction Market

Business executives, managers, and HR leaders need to be fully versed in the prediction market because its coverage areas are continually expanding, so that they now cover many more business outcomes.

Those business outcomes might include the tenure of executives, whether an M&A will be completed, the release of new products, and the likelihood of layoffs and mergers. HR needs to be aware of this market because of its addictive nature. Using it often consumes a great deal of employee work hours, resulting in a significant reduction in productivity.

Executives need to be aware of this market because its coverage of strategic business outcomes can result in a dramatic increase in the leaking of critical internal business secrets. This can be a big win for your competitors, but also because predictive market outcomes make it much easier for your competitors to accurately determine your upcoming strategic moves (ouch). And finally, the prediction market may even directly impact your stock price. A complete listing of all of the predictive market’s possible negative impacts can be found below in the next section.

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The Top 10 Impacts That TPM Will Have On HR, Executives, And Employees

There are multiple reasons why everyone should avoid being blindsided by the sudden expansion of your employee’s usage of the prediction market. And it’s important to note that these impacts will become even greater when HR is unprepared for its coming expansion. The top business and HR impacts that you must plan for include:

1. TPM can alter strategic business decisions – the listings on a prediction market platform cover the probability that an event/outcome will occur before a “happen by date.” So, for example, employees may take actions that will cause a new product to be released too soon. If releasing it early will make them a lot of money. Or, in contrast, they may do disruptive things in order to delay the release of a product if that time-to-market delay will make them more TPM money. But unfortunately, any alteration of a product’s release date as a result of TPM influence will be counterproductive to the bottom line because the change in delivery date will either hurt product quality or mean that the product will not be ready when consumer demand is at its highest. Likewise, having large predictive bets on the occurrence of mergers, layoffs, facility closings, and major expansions may influence executives to change an otherwise sound decision or to alter the date when it will occur.

2. The leaking of secrets will, unfortunately, increase – as these markets cover additional critical business decisions. More executives and employees will be rewarded when they use their insider information to make “informed bets.” And each leak has the chance of also helping your competitors. For example, employees and executives can sometimes make money on TPM if they “leak” confidential business secrets, information on major internal investments, and even executive health information, so that this insider information shifts the odds in their favor. so that this insider information shifts the odds in their favor. Also, the growing popularity of TPMs will mean that more of your employees will be approached by outside investors who are willing to pay for company secrets that shift the odds in their favor. It’s also important to note that with the significant monetary incentive offered by leaking secrets, nondisclosure agreements will have a much smaller impact.

3. Sabotage and the delaying of work may occur – because your employees who bet on your own corporation’s business outcomes will now have a much larger monetary stake on meeting each outcome. There will be a greater chance that your employees will rush something (like a product or service) to delivery before it is ready. Or alternatively, to make money on a bet, employees might deliberately slow down or even sabotage an outcome that would lose them TPM money. Unfortunately, this extremely damaging behavior will be extremely difficult both to spot and to counter.

4. TPM will impact executive tenure – CEOs, executives, and well-known employees will realize when their departure has become a betting prediction. That recognition by itself might alter their decision to leave (and when). And because they control when they leave, a few might change their departure date in order to make more TPM money.

5. The loss of work hours will hurt productivity – online gambling has been proven to be both addictive and time-consuming. HR and managers will, unfortunately, discover that some addicted employees will spend multiple hours of company time each week on their phone, making and tracking their prediction bets. And if this TPM usage spreads virally throughout the corporation, your performance management process will need to be updated and significantly expanded.

6. TPM will reduce valuable collaboration and sharing – most employees who use TPM don’t want anyone to know that they are betting. They spend their time on the site in an isolated place so that others won’t notice what they’re doing. But unfortunately, that self-isolation, even during breaks, at lunch, and after work hours, will dramatically reduce the TPM user’s informal interactions with managers, teammates, and other employees. And unintentionally, that lesser amount of communication and interaction will lower team cohesiveness in teams where innovation is automatically expected. That lower level of interaction will dramatically reduce the collaboration that is required for innovation.

7. TPM may change employee tenure and recruiting – so many are convinced of the forecasting accuracy of TPM. In cases where many outsiders are betting against your company’s success or stock price, that betting trend may actually nudge some of your employees who were considering leaving to actually depart (or vice versa) as the word spreads about your corporation’s negative track record on TPM. These same negative success predictions will also eventually hurt your corporation’s ability to recruit top talent. 

8. Mega managers won’t be able to offer help – in a world where delayering and becoming lean have become so common. Mega managers are no longer rare. And with such a large span of control, a mega manager simply won’t be able to closely monitor any of their employees’ betting behaviors or determine which ones need professional help for addiction. And of course, few managers of any type will have had any training on how to handle this difficult betting problem.

9. Their betting losses will increase employee pay expectations and turnover – employees who continually lose a great deal of money on TPM will eventually demand more pay. And when they get it, TPM will increase your compensation costs. And those who don’t get it internally will likely leave for higher pay at external jobs. And with many more employees needing extra income, unfortunately, the cases of embezzlement may increase. Finally, it is important to realize that employees who are “always broke” aren’t likely to be very good team players, productive, or innovative.

10. TPM may even improve your stock price – and last, one positive impact. Most corporations will have a betting line on their stock price. Executives should realize that a betting line that routinely forecasts the continual growth in their corporation’s stock price may actually contribute to a real increase in their stock price. And that, in turn, will improve employee tenure and recruiting because your employees’ 401(k) accounts will be continually rising. 

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Implementation Tips And Next Steps

For those who are considering implementing a plan for confronting this ‘betting on business outcomes’ problem head-on, I have put together some action steps and tips for building a data-driven TPM reduction effort. They include:

• Make HR the lead in planning and enforcement efforts – make it clear from the start that HR is responsible and accountable for minimizing the negative business impacts of TPM. And be sure that the HR strategy and effort include training of all managers on how to best react to this challenge. HR should also put together a benchmarking effort with a goal of learning the best TPM practices of other corporations so that, in the end, your TPM effort will provide your corporation with a sustainable competitive advantage.

• Measure TPM usage against an existing employee survey – if there is already an anonymous employee survey, a component should be added that allows employees to anonymously declare when they are struggling with this betting problem. The percentage of employees who declare that TPM/betting is still a problem should be a measure of the overall success of the TPM effort.

• Provide help services to employees – all corporations should educate their employees on the dangers of using any type of betting platform. And the employee assistance program should be specifically charged with creating an employee helpline as well as providing direct professional help to those who may be addicted.

• Prohibit TPM use on company devices – HR should create and then fully enforce a policy that prohibits the placement of any betting or TPM app on company-owned devices.

• Prohibit its use during work hours – it’s wise to at least consider prohibiting the use of TPM or betting platforms during work hours and anywhere within your facility. HR should also create and then enforce significant punishment for those who violate TPM rules.

• Corporations should monitor the bets and their outcomes – obviously, HR should continually identify the cases where an important corporate area is covered by a TPM platform. In addition, smart leaders should use “unusual activity identification tools” to help identify when the “betting line” for major business decisions and outcomes of your corporation appears to be unduly influenced. So that your company can investigate when it appears that these bets may have been unfairly influenced by insider information, and at some point in the future, there may be an AI tool that can accurately identify the betting lines that cover your company that have been influenced by insiders and/or inside information.

Final Thoughts

Just when you thought that mobile phone-enabled gambling had reached its pinnacle with FanDuel and DraftKings, you shouldn’t be surprised to learn that it hasn’t. A completely different betting/investing platform known as “The Prediction Market” has become popular. This market has expanded online gambling into politics, entertainment, economics, and, yes, corporate business outcomes. Also, it’s important to realize that smart talent managers and executives simply can’t afford to ignore this trend. First, because TPM usage is already widespread and it is growing at an exponential pace. Also, once TPM usage takes hold in your corporation, it brings numerous extremely costly consequences.

Finally, everyone must pay attention to this TPM issue because HR and corporate executives are currently completely unprepared for it. And I predict that if this lack of preparation continues at your company, your corporation can expect the costly and negative corporate consequences from this new damaging TPM practice to double over the next year.

And thanks for finding the time to read and share this warning.

Notes for the reader

This is the latest article from Dr. Sullivan, who was called “the Michael Jordan of Hiring” by Fast Company.

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